Why New Year's Resolutions Fail, and Does a Vision Board Help?

What the research actually says

You will often read that "80% of resolutions fail by February." We do not repeat that number, because we could not trace it to a published study.

The best evidence we found is a one-year trial by Oscarsson and colleagues (PLOS ONE, 2020). It followed 1,066 people who made a resolution, with monthly check-ins through the year. Reported results: roughly half were still keeping their resolution after twelve months, and people whose goal was something to do ("walk after dinner") did better than people whose goal was something to stop ("quit sugar").

So the honest picture is not "everyone quits in February." It is that the way you phrase the goal changes your odds.

Three common reasons they fail

• It is framed as avoidance. "Stop snacking" gives you nothing to do on a hard day. "Eat fruit at 4pm" does.
• It is vague. "Get fit" has no first step. A first step is what carries you through week three.
• It is done alone. In the same trial, the group that received some support did better than the groups that did not.

Does a vision board help?

Partly, and only if you use it the right way. Looking at a picture of your goal and stopping there can backfire: Kappes and Oettingen found that positive fantasies about the future can sap the energy to act (JESP, 2011).

What works better is picturing the process, not only the finish line. Pham and Taylor found that students who simulated the steps toward an exam prepared better than students who pictured only a great result (PSPB, 1999).

We have not found a trial that tests a vision board against a plain resolution over a year, so we will not claim one beats the other.

A simple way to combine them

1. Write the resolution as an action you add, not a habit you ban.
2. Make it small enough for the first week, with a day and a time.
3. Make a board of the person doing it, not only the result. See how to create a vision board.
4. Tell one person, and check in with them monthly.